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Welcome to the ninth publication in our International Trade Trends & Insights series, which has now been running without interruption since 2017.
Throughout that time, the message has been remarkably consistent – New Zealand exporters need to plan for the unexpected because the global economy will always be subject to geopolitical turbulence. As we confront 2026, that reality continues.
The first big event for the year will be the US Supreme Court decision on the Trump Administration’s reliance for its tariff policy on the International Emergency Economic Powers Act 1977. Whatever the outcome, the tariffs have been a wake-up call for trading partners, including New Zealand, which are responding by developing new trade alliances to buttress themselves against a more inward-looking and protectionist United States. The India-FTA is a significant development on this front.
In the meantime, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s speech at Davos is continuing to spur debate on New Zealand’s international positioning ahead of our November 2026 general election. The EU is continuing its sustainability focus and using its trading relationships as a lever; New Zealand’s trade sanctions out against Iran and Russia continue, with a broader export controls review on the horizon, and the World Trade Organisation, although weakened through the lack of a functioning appellate body, continues to play an important role for smaller players like New Zealand.
In collaboration with Tracey Epps, we cover trade highlights from 2025 and the outlook for the year ahead, including progress towards the Government’s goal to double New Zealand exports within ten years.
